Slovenia: finishing for the next bank rescue

The little Slovenia is the next life-candidate, because the land brings his banks, instead of handling them

After Cyprus, a Marodes banking system now brings with Slovenia the next small country on crash course. The gross government banks need a lot of fresh money because they sit on lazy loans of at least seven billion euros. These are 20 percent of the total economic performance of the country. The deficit explodes and the government uses massive tax threats and savings records to avert a gear under the rescue package. However, they will continue to be severely difficult for the countryworked by recession. However, there is now time to get your money before a forced tax for banking rescue to security. Meanwhile, the Banking Union should be created that should enable direct access to bank rescue tax milliaries.

Two months ago, the new Social Democratic Minister Prospective Minister Alenka explained Bratusek: "Slovenia is stable and probably more stable than many other European countries." Maybe she meant by Cyprus, which has now started the course to Canossa and put the painful assistant application with the rescue package (ESM) with the corresponding conditions. Bratusek now seems to escape the escape forward. You relyed a maaking program to avoid the course under the ESM. But before the application, she wants to import many of the mails, which are always imposed on a country with the emergency aid. "This program will allow Slovenia to continue a completely Souveran state", said Bratusek.

The bratusek confessed mails are all too well known from Greece, Portugal and Spain. And the sovereignty has been clearly questionable because it should be implemented on prere from Brussel. The Minister Presentess introduced the tarpaulin on Thursday, because Slovenia had to present his program in Brussel today. EU probation Commissioner Olli Rehn had always "Decision-determined action" In Ljubljana, because the government is otherwise under supervision. Brussel has not yet become the tarpaulin, first the program should be analyzed. It looks at first the value added tax rate on the 1. July from anyhin high 20 to 22 percent further. This will hit the low income especially hard. The reduced sentence on food and medicines should rise from 8.5 to 9.5%. To be introduced should also be a real estate tax. With both tax increases, a half-billion euros should be fed into the state treasury. In addition, the negotiations in the judiciary should be raised and the lottery tax is also increased.

Half a billion euros should be saved in addition in the household. However, there were no information about concrete savings planes. With the unions are negotiated in public service via the salary rashes known from other countries. To be privatized, a total of 15 state enterprises, including the Telekom Slovenija and the Nova KBM, second-gray bench of the country, and 13 smaller companies, Customer Finance Minister Uros Cufer. On the other hand, the junior partner in the government has already been pronounced, which is why it is questionable whether the planes are appreciated by Parliament.

On the general "Crisis tax", which, according to the newspaper finance, should be raised to all income, was first renounced. However, Bratusek has confirmed that over such a tax has been reflected between 0.5% and 5% to save the banks. But she meant on a press conference on the spades Thursday, the waiver of the crisis tax Konne have a positive effect for the economy. However, if the hoped-in effect does not occur, the crisis tax can be used "to a plan b".

The old recipes that do not work

On the basis of these statements, the informed viewer rubs his eyes in astonishment. One believes not to trust his ears. Since the population for banking rescue is made massive to the cashier and the waiver of providing even hard taxes on all incomes, the economy should boost? That does not believe that Bratusek himself. You can see in Portugal, Greece and Spain, where there were such measures that are supposed to reduce the deficit. You will also be justified in Slovenia. The budget deficit will explode in 2013 to 7.8% because after the first cash syringe of 420 million euros again at least 900 million euros should be pumped in falling banks.

In the three mentioned crisis tags, however, such programs only envisioned that the respective deficit in 2012 at the previous year now even increased again. In Spain, the bank rescue even increased to 10.6%. The country is now before Greece Deficit European Champion. Portugal was printed by these austerity policy in a never-way recession and in Greece can even be spoken by depression.

Spain was also saved in the recession after the country even later recorded a slight growth in 2011. It is therefore possible to focus on which effects these males are unfolded in a country, which as Slovenia is already deep in the recession at the starting point. In the fourth quarter of 2012, the economy has shrunk by 2.8% compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

Because the austerity programs are usually set or accelerated the negative spiral. Unemployment will rise, which is still 9.9% below the average of the eurozone (12.1%), because the population is deprived of purchasing power over salary rashes and tax threats, which continues to slow down consumption. Austerity programs that are returned to investments have a similar effect. At the same time, social spending increases with unemployment. Increased tax revenues, despite increased phrases, as was also observed in other crisis channels, the revenue of social banks break.

Therefore, the countries on this course do not come to the deficit and stability goals. Compliance with the stability target, according to which new debt should only be 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), has just been postponed for two years later for Spain for two years to 2016. In Slovenia, the recipe for a disaster is particularly absurd in view of the (yet) relatively low public debt. She was also in Spain, before being started with the austrial course and bank rescue. Spain was one of the few Euro countries in 2009, before the strict savings price was taken, which set up the second stability goal, which government debt may only be 60 percent of GDP. This is true for Slovenia today. At the end of 2012, government debt was only 54%. In the eurozone, in addition to Slovenia, only Estonia (10.1%), Luxembourg (20.8%), Slovakia (52.1%) and Finland (53%) of this stability criterion. The banking rescue will tap, also admits the Slovenian government. It ames that debt will swell to 61% by the end of the year.

Game on time

In view of the relatively low debt, Slovenia immediately had to handle the photocopy banks involving investors instead of saving them at the expense of taxpayers and economic decline. The country had to invest specifically, instead of launching the negative spiral, which is powered by Brussel’s programs. There are hardly any reason to believe from previously made experiences in other crisis channels that the land returns to the legs over the way around the same way around the legs and thus around a rescue application. the "catastrophic consequences" of such programs are known, which is why early on occupied mouth was warned in front of them.

The country was able to use the fact that it can continue to refinance over the capital markets. Although the rating agency Moody’s has lowered the Bonitatsnote Slovenia last week by two stages on Ramschneveau (BA1), Slovenia was able to auction government bonds with maturities of FUF and ten years per scope of 3.5 billion euros. The yields were still well below the 7% trademark, which marked the crash limit in many indebted states such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The capital requirement should be covered until 2014.

Slovenia benefits from the massive flood of money, because the European Central Bank (ECB) had opened the money fails last week (the ECB open the money lining). The many and more cheaper money is looking for profitable investment items. It is massively gambling again, including government bonds of crashing channels such as Slovenia or Spain. Spanish interest rates are as deep, as long ago no longer, although the country’s economy sinks in the crisis, as an unemployment shows more than 27%. For Spain, the gentle interest rates brings because of the debt exploded in recent years to almost 90 percent of GDP, but now hardly relief.

The Slovenian Minister Presentess Bratusek tries to shape with your approach, especially time. Maybe she just tries to rescue auspicious prior to the forced release, which came for the first time in Cyprus for banking rescue. That Cyprus represents the blueprint for future rescue measures, resulting in Brussel no more secret. With their approach, not immediately to process ailing banks, as it was unprecedievable in Ireland and Cyprus, but now the possibility of possession of a tribute to deduct their money from domedene banks and from the country to take it before a levy Bank rescue to protect.

Behind the game on time, as Spain has already made, the attempt could also provide direct access to the Damobe Slovenian banks to provide direct access to the ESM billions of European taxpayers. As you know, the banking union must first be created, which the first steps are already gone. Finally, almost 10 trillion euros should be hedged at liabilities on which European banks are sitting. And for that you will be planned for flash expropriations of savers over the weekend (weekend expropriation for 9.3 trillion bank debts?To).

That the federal government is currently forcing the tarpaulin for the banking union, is no coincidence. On Wednesday a bill was launched. Government speaker Steffen Seibert spoke of one "Building block for more financial stability" in Europe. Until the summer break, suddenly a European regime is to be found quickly. That Minister of Finance Wolfgang SchaBle one "Settlement mechanism" In the foreground for maraud banks, so that the costs are no longer left alone at taxpayer, many for one "Him debate and satification pills for the election folk". It goes to the banking union "First and foremost around the Common European Deposit Guarantee Fund" and thus to access all in "Europe savings deposits and bank balances", mean the economic news.

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